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York Utd vs Cavalry Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Group Stage ·Wednesday, June 10, 2026, 23:30

York Utd

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Cavalry

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-116.6%0-211.3%0-35.1%0-4+2.3%1 1-09.1%1-112.4%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-03.4%2-14.6%2-23.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.8%3-11.1%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.2% 29.0% 3.45 -16.1%

Draw 28.1% 29.9% 3.35 -3.5%

Away win 50.7% 50.5% 1.98 +0.4%

Over 2.5 47.1% 50.0% 2.00 -5.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 29.0% 3.45 -1.8%

BTTS 47.8% 56.5% 1.77 -15.4%

Home O1.5 33.0% 32.3% 3.10 +2.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 47.6% 2.10 -30.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob47.8%

A 51% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.6%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 0–2 11.3%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

York Utd0.7

Cavalry1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

YORK UTD · PPG 1.75

CAVALRY · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

York Utd (H) 21.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -16.1%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.5%

Cavalry (A) 50.7%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

York Utd face Cavalry in Canada - Canadian Premier League on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives York Utd a 21% chance, the draw 28% and Cavalry 51%, so Cavalry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for York Utd and 1.4 for Cavalry (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, York Utd are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Cavalry. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 1-5.

York Utd vs Cavalry Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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