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HFX Wanderers vs Pacific Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Group Stage ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 21:30

HFX Wanderers

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pacific

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.2%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.3%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.2%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.6%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 2.08 -2.0%

Draw 27.0% 3.45 -4.1%

Away win 25.9% 3.15 -11.1%

Over 2.5 49.8% 1.73 -13.9%

Over 3.5 28.6% 2.75 -12.8%

BTTS 52.8% 1.55 -18.2%

Home Over 1.5 43.5% 1.93 -16.0%

Away Over 1.5 32.2% 2.50 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.8%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HFX Wanderers1.5

Pacific1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HFX WANDERERS · PPG 1.25

PACIFIC · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

HFX Wanderers (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -2.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.1%

Pacific (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

HFX Wanderers face Pacific in Canada - Canadian Premier League on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HFX Wanderers a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Pacific 26%, so HFX Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for HFX Wanderers and 1.0 for Pacific (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HFX Wanderers are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Pacific.

HFX Wanderers vs Pacific Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Canada - Canadian Premier League Predictions