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York Utd vs Forge Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 18:00

York Utd

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

Forge

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-115.7%0-28.0%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-013.1%1-113.4%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.6%2-15.7%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.6%3-11.6%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 30.3% 3.30 +4.6%

Draw 33.5% 29.4% 3.40 +13.9%

Away win 34.8% 49.0% 2.04 -29.0%

Over 2.5 37.1% 52.6% 1.90 -29.5%

Over 3.5 19.3% 31.3% 3.20 -22.9%

BTTS 48.0% 59.9% 1.67 -19.8%

Home O1.5 33.7% 35.7% 2.80 -5.6%

Away O1.5 32.0% 48.8% 2.05 -34.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.0%

D 34% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.7%

#4 1–0 13.1%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

York Utd0.9

Forge1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

YORK UTD · PPG 2.33

FORGE · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

York Utd (H) 31.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +4.6%

Draw 33.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +13.9%

Forge (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

York Utd face Forge in Canada - Canadian Premier League on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives York Utd a 32% chance, the draw 34% and Forge 35%, so Forge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for York Utd and 1.0 for Forge (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, York Utd are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.25 for Forge. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 1-4.

York Utd vs Forge Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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