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Forge vs Vancouver FC Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 1, 2026, 17:00

Forge

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

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3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vancouver FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.7%0-18.0%0-21.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-025.1%1-19.3%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.5%2-15.4%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.6%3-12.1%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 67.6% 1.48 -22.0%

Draw 28.2% 24.4% 4.10 +9.4%

Away win 19.0% 17.2% 5.80 +6.1%

Over 2.5 34.9% 55.6% 1.80 -37.2%

Over 3.5 18.0% 33.3% 3.00 -27.6%

BTTS 44.6% 54.1% 1.85 -17.5%

Home O1.5 35.2% 61.7% 1.62 -43.0%

Away O1.5 11.1% 23.1% 4.33 -31.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.6%

H 53% / xG 1.2-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 25.1%

#2 0–0 21.7%

#3 2–0 14.5%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forge1.2

Vancouver FC0.4

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FORGE · PPG 2.60

VANCOUVER FC · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=52.7%

Win probability 1X2

Forge (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -22.0%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +9.4%

Vancouver FC (A) 19.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forge face Vancouver FC in Canada - Canadian Premier League on Wednesday, July 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forge a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Vancouver FC 19%, so Forge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Forge and 0.4 for Vancouver FC (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forge are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Vancouver FC. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Forge vs Vancouver FC Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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