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Cavalry vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 23:00

Cavalry

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-13.7%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.3%1-18.3%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.1%3-16.8%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-16.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 1.38 -13.8%

Draw 20.3% 4.30 -7.6%

Away win 17.1% 7.60 +18.0%

Over 2.5 61.3% 1.70 +4.2%

Over 3.5 37.3% 2.75 +2.6%

BTTS 52.8% 1.85 -2.3%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.50 -9.1%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 4.50 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.8%

H 62% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 3–0 10.1%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cavalry2.2

Supra du Quebec0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CAVALRY · PPG 2.50

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=62.5%

Win probability 1X2

Cavalry (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -13.8%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -7.6%

Supra du Quebec (A) 17.1%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cavalry face Supra du Quebec in Canada - Canadian Premier League on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cavalry a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Supra du Quebec 17%, so Cavalry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Cavalry and 0.7 for Supra du Quebec (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cavalry are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Supra du Quebec. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.0%.

Cavalry vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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