Today / Canada - Canadian Premier League / A. Ottawa vs Cavalry

A. Ottawa vs Cavalry Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 20:00

A. Ottawa

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cavalry

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-112.5%0-210.8%0-36.3%0-4+4.0%1 1-06.5%1-111.2%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-02.9%2-15.0%2-24.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.9%3-11.5%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% 23.8% 4.20 -4.8%

Draw 23.7% 28.2% 3.55 -9.5%

Away win 54.5% 56.8% 1.76 -4.1%

Over 2.5 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Over 3.5 35.1% 36.4% 2.75 -3.5%

BTTS 55.6% 62.5% 1.60 -11.0%

Home O1.5 33.7% 33.3% 3.00 +1.1%

Away O1.5 49.8% 57.8% 1.73 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 46.3%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.6%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 0–2 10.8%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Ottawa0.9

Cavalry1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

A. OTTAWA · PPG 2.50

CAVALRY · PPG 2.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away EXCELLENT (2.17)

Win probability 1X2

A. Ottawa (H) 21.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.5%

Cavalry (A) 54.5%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Ottawa face Cavalry in Canada - Canadian Premier League on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Ottawa a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Cavalry 55%, so Cavalry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for A. Ottawa and 1.7 for Cavalry (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Ottawa are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.17 for Cavalry. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 0-3.

A. Ottawa vs Cavalry Prediction— Canada - Canadian Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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