Today / Belmont Swansea vs Newcastle O.

Belmont Swansea vs Newcastle O. Prediction

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Newcastle O.

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.3%0-22.9%0-32.4%0-4+2.8%1 1-02.0%1-15.0%1-26.3%1-35.3%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.2%2-15.5%2-26.9%2-35.8%2-4+6.6%3 3-01.6%3-14.0%3-25.0%3-34.2%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-13.6%4+-24.5%4+-33.8%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% — — —

Draw 18.8% — — —

Away win 46.6% — — —

Over 2.5 84.8% — — —

Over 3.5 69.1% — — —

BTTS 81.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob81.6%

A 47% / xG 2.2-2.5 / O2.5 85% / BTTS 82%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2✓ 6.9%

#2 1–2 6.3%

#3 2–3 5.8%

#4 2–1 5.5%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belmont Swansea2.2

Newcastle O.2.5

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.8% · O3.5 PROB 69.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.80

NEWCASTLE O. · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Belmont Swansea (H) 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Newcastle O. (A) 46.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Belmont Swansea face Newcastle O. on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belmont Swansea a 35% chance, the draw 19% and Newcastle O. 47%, so Newcastle O. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Belmont Swansea and 2.5 for Newcastle O. (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 82% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belmont Swansea are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.75 for Newcastle O.. This match finished 2-2.

Belmont Swansea vs Newcastle O. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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