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Instituto vs Estudiantes Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 20:15

Instituto

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Estudiantes

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.9%0-114.9%0-25.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.5%1-113.1%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.3%2-15.7%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.1%3-11.7%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 38.2% 2.62 -7.8%

Draw 34.4% 33.3% 3.00 +3.2%

Away win 30.4% 35.5% 2.82 -14.3%

Over 2.5 23.4% 38.5% 2.60 -39.2%

Over 3.5 8.8% 19.0% 5.25 -53.8%

BTTS 31.9% 47.6% 2.10 -33.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob31.9%

D 34% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.9%

#2 1–0 16.5%

#3 0–1✓ 14.9%

#4 1–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Instituto0.9

Estudiantes0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.4% · O3.5 PROB 8.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INSTITUTO · PPG 1.86

ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

35%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Instituto (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -7.8%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +3.2%

Estudiantes (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Instituto face Estudiantes in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Instituto a 35% chance, the draw 34% and Estudiantes 30%, so Instituto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Instituto and 0.8 for Estudiantes (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Instituto are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.50 for Estudiantes. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Instituto vs Estudiantes Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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