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Lille vs Nice Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 19:05

Lille

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Nice

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDW

// Model verdict

Home 71% chance

Model probability 82.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+23.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.6%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.9%1-15.0%1-22.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.3%2-17.8%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-18.1%3-23.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-016.5%4+-113.8%4+-25.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 82.1% 66.7% 1.50 +23.2%

Draw 11.2% 24.4% 4.10 -54.1%

Away win 6.7% 16.0% 6.25 -58.1%

Over 2.5 75.7% 55.6% 1.80 +36.3%

Over 3.5 56.0% 33.9% 2.95 +65.2%

BTTS 54.3% 54.1% 1.85 +0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.3%

H 82% / xG 3.1-0.8 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.7%

#2 2–0 9.3%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 4–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lille3.1

Nice0.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 56.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLE · PPG 1.93

NICE · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

71%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.93), Away POOR (0.71) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lille (H) 82.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +23.2%

Draw 11.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -54.1%

Nice (A) 6.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -58.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lille face Nice in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lille a 82% chance, the draw 11% and Nice 7%, so Lille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Lille and 0.8 for Nice (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lille are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.71 for Nice. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +65.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Lille vs Nice Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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