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Nice vs Le Mans Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:45

Nice

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

UPCOMING

Le Mans

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.5%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.1%1-111.7%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 55.6% 1.80 -21.7%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 32.1% 23.8% 4.20 +34.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 32.3% 3.10 -1.7%

BTTS 55.9% 57.8% 1.73 -3.3%

Home O1.5 45.8% 54.1% 1.85 -15.3%

Away O1.5 38.0% 31.3% 3.20 +21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nice1.6

Le Mans1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NICE · PPG 1.30

LE MANS · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nice (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -21.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Le Mans (A) 32.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +34.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nice face Le Mans in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nice a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Le Mans 32%, so Nice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nice and 1.3 for Le Mans (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nice are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.25 for Le Mans. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +23.5%.

Nice vs Le Mans Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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