Today / France - Ligue 1 / Angers vs Rennes

Angers vs Rennes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:15

Angers

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

UPCOMING

Rennes

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.4%0-25.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.1%1-111.4%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.2%3-14.5%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 26.7% 3.75 +50.7%

Draw 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Away win 35.7% 54.1% 1.85 -34.0%

Over 2.5 58.1% 59.9% 1.67 -3.0%

Over 3.5 35.6% 38.2% 2.62 -6.7%

BTTS 59.0% 62.5% 1.60 -5.6%

Home O1.5 43.4% 36.4% 2.75 +19.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 57.8% 1.73 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.1%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angers1.5

Rennes1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGERS · PPG 1.17

RENNES · PPG 1.48

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Angers (H) 40.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +50.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Rennes (A) 35.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angers face Rennes in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angers a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Rennes 36%, so Angers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Angers and 1.4 for Rennes (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angers are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.48 for Rennes. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +50.4%.

Angers vs Rennes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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