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Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:45

Le Havre

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

UPCOMING

Stade Brestois 29

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

DD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.7%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-112.0%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-14.8%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 37.9% 2.64 +18.3%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 29.2% 37.9% 2.64 -13.8%

Over 2.5 52.4% 47.6% 2.10 +10.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.7% 3.75 +18.5%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 45.9% 39.2% 2.55 +17.0%

Away O1.5 33.2% 39.2% 2.55 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Le Havre1.6

Stade Brestois 291.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LE HAVRE · PPG 1.17

STADE BRESTOIS 29 · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Le Havre (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV +18.3%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Stade Brestois 29 (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Le Havre face Stade Brestois 29 in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Le Havre a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Stade Brestois 29 29%, so Le Havre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Le Havre and 1.1 for Stade Brestois 29 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Le Havre are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.02 for Stade Brestois 29. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +27.1%.

Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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