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Racing CM vs Defensor S. Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 12 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 19:00

Racing CM

PPG 2.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Defensor S.

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.9% — a clear edge.

+24.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.3%0-18.1%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.0%1-110.1%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.5%2-16.4%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.1%3-12.7%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 45.9% 2.18 +24.5%

Draw 30.0% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

Away win 13.0% 29.9% 3.35 -56.5%

Over 2.5 24.2% 40.8% 2.45 -40.7%

Over 3.5 9.3% 21.1% 4.75 -55.8%

BTTS 25.5% 50.0% 2.00 -49.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob25.5%

H 57% / xG 1.3-0.4 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 26%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 23.0%

#2 0–0 18.3%

#3 2–0 14.5%

#4 1–1✓ 10.1%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing CM1.3

Defensor S.0.4

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.2% · O3.5 PROB 9.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING CM · PPG 2.17

DEFENSOR S. · PPG 0.83

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=57.1%

Win probability 1X2

Racing CM (H) 57.1%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +24.5%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.0%

Defensor S. (A) 13.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -56.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing CM face Defensor S. in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing CM a 57% chance, the draw 30% and Defensor S. 13%, so Racing CM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Racing CM and 0.4 for Defensor S. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing CM are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.83 for Defensor S.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Racing CM vs Defensor S. Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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