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Marconi S. vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 05:00

Marconi S.

PPG 2.43 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

UNSW

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-13.7%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.1%1-18.2%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.1%3-16.9%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-16.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 78.1% 1.28 -17.9%

Draw 21.3% 21.1% 4.75 +0.7%

Away win 14.6% 10.5% 9.50 +23.2%

Over 2.5 54.0% 62.5% 1.60 -13.6%

Over 3.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

BTTS 48.5% 52.4% 1.91 -7.4%

Home O1.5 60.3% 73.5% 1.36 -18.0%

Away O1.5 23.2% 21.1% 4.75 +6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0✓ 12.1%

#3 3–0 10.1%

#4 1–1 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi S.2.2

UNSW0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.43

UNSW · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=64.1%

Win probability 1X2

Marconi S. (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -17.9%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +0.7%

UNSW (A) 14.6%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi S. face UNSW in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi S. a 64% chance, the draw 21% and UNSW 15%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Marconi S. and 0.7 for UNSW (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi S. are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.33 for UNSW. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Marconi S. vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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