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Blacktown City vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 05:00

Blacktown City

PPG 0.78 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-19.7%0-29.5%0-36.2%0-4+4.7%1 1-05.2%1-110.2%1-29.9%1-36.5%1-4+4.9%2 2-02.7%2-15.3%2-25.2%2-33.4%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.9%3-21.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 20.0% 5.00 +2.7%

Draw 23.0% 24.4% 4.10 -3.4%

Away win 56.1% 65.4% 1.53 -14.2%

Over 2.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.5% 45.5% 2.20 -19.7%

BTTS 55.9% 64.5% 1.55 -13.4%

Home O1.5 36.4% 34.5% 2.90 +5.6%

Away O1.5 50.8% 69.0% 1.45 -26.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob55.9%

A 56% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.5%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown City1.0

APIA Leichhardt2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.78

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.89) vs Home POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown City (H) 20.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +2.7%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.4%

APIA Leichhardt (A) 56.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown City face APIA Leichhardt in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown City a 21% chance, the draw 23% and APIA Leichhardt 56%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Blacktown City and 2.0 for APIA Leichhardt (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown City are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.89 for APIA Leichhardt. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Blacktown City vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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