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Sydney Utd vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 04:30

Sydney Utd

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

SD Raiders

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.5%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-19.4%1-24.1%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.8%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 71.4% 1.40 -20.5%

Draw 22.7% 23.8% 4.20 -2.8%

Away win 20.5% 15.4% 6.50 +20.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 60.6% 1.65 -10.9%

Over 3.5 33.6% 38.2% 2.62 -12.0%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 60.3% 67.6% 1.48 -10.8%

Away O1.5 24.7% 25.3% 3.95 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0✓ 10.9%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Utd2.1

SD Raiders0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 2.20

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=56.8%

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Utd (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -20.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.8%

SD Raiders (A) 20.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Utd face SD Raiders in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Utd a 57% chance, the draw 23% and SD Raiders 21%, so Sydney Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sydney Utd and 0.9 for SD Raiders (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Utd are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.38 for SD Raiders. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Sydney Utd vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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