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Chelsea vs Manchester Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 19:00

Chelsea

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Manchester Utd

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.3%0-23.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.1%1-18.9%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.3%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 45.9% 2.18 +12.9%

Draw 21.2% 28.2% 3.55 -24.7%

Away win 27.0% 32.8% 3.05 -17.6%

Over 2.5 68.2% 63.7% 1.57 +7.1%

Over 3.5 46.7% 42.6% 2.35 +9.8%

BTTS 66.9% 67.6% 1.48 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob66.9%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelsea2.1

Manchester Utd1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELSEA · PPG 1.44

MANCHESTER UTD · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Chelsea (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +12.9%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -24.7%

Manchester Utd (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelsea face Manchester Utd in England - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelsea a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Manchester Utd 27%, so Chelsea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Chelsea and 1.5 for Manchester Utd (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelsea are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.38 for Manchester Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Chelsea vs Manchester Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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