Today / Harju JK vs Nomme Utd

Harju JK vs Nomme Utd Prediction

Saturday, June 20, 2026

Harju JK

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nomme Utd

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.8%0-23.2%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.8%1-18.0%1-26.7%1-33.7%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.6%3-16.0%3-25.0%3-32.8%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.1%4+-24.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.7% — —

Draw 22.6% — —

Away win 27.8% — —

Over 2.5 65.9% — —

Over 3.5 42.7% — —

BTTS 63.4% — —

Win probability 1X2

Harju JK (H) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nomme Utd (A) 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harju JK2.1

Nomme Utd1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HARJU JK · PPG 1.25

NOMME UTD · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.88)

Match Preview & Prediction

Harju JK face Nomme Utd on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harju JK a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Nomme Utd 28%, so Harju JK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Harju JK and 1.7 for Nomme Utd (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harju JK are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Nomme Utd. This match finished 1-3.

Harju JK vs Nomme Utd Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions