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Tuggeranong Utd vs Canberra White Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 05:00

Tuggeranong Utd

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Canberra White

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.3%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.1%1-11.4%1-20.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-02.7%2-13.3%2-22.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-021.3%4+-125.8%4+-215.6%4+-36.3%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 68.7% 1.40 -3.8%

Draw 16.8% 4.60 -13.6%

Away win 14.5% 5.00 -16.5%

Over 2.5 83.2% 1.28 +6.5%

Over 3.5 64.4% 1.63 +5.0%

BTTS 63.4% 1.36 -13.8%

Win probability 1X2

Tuggeranong Utd (H) 68.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -3.8%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -13.6%

Canberra White (A) 14.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 84%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 47.2%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.4%

H 69% / xG 4.9-1.2 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.5%

#2 5–1 6.3%

#3 4–0 5.4%

#4 3–1 5.3%

#5 5–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tuggeranong Utd4.9

Canberra White1.2

COMBINED 6.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.2% · O3.5 PROB 64.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TUGGERANONG UTD · PPG 2.14

CANBERRA WHITE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.14), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Match Preview & Prediction

Tuggeranong Utd face Canberra White in Australia - Capital Territory NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tuggeranong Utd a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Canberra White 14%, so Tuggeranong Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.9 for Tuggeranong Utd and 1.2 for Canberra White (6.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tuggeranong Utd are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.75 for Canberra White. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.9%.

Tuggeranong Utd vs Canberra White Prediction— Australia - Capital Territory NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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