Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / Throttur Vogar vs Kari

Throttur Vogar vs Kari Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 19:15

Throttur Vogar

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kari

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-14.0%0-24.7%0-33.7%0-4+3.8%1 1-02.9%1-16.9%1-28.1%1-36.3%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.5%2-15.9%2-27.0%2-35.5%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.5%3-13.4%3-24.0%3-33.1%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.2%4+-22.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 2.40 -26.8%

Draw 21.5% 3.50 -14.8%

Away win 48.0% 2.30 +10.4%

Over 2.5 65.9% 1.33 -12.3%

Over 3.5 47.5% 1.77 -15.9%

BTTS 67.0% 1.30 -12.9%

Win probability 1X2

Throttur Vogar (H) 30.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -26.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.8%

Kari (A) 48.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob67.0%

A 48% / xG 1.7-2.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.3%

#5 2–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Throttur Vogar1.7

Kari2.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

THROTTUR VOGAR · PPG 1.75

KARI · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Match Preview & Prediction

Throttur Vogar face Kari in Iceland - 2. Deild on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Throttur Vogar a 31% chance, the draw 22% and Kari 48%, so Kari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Throttur Vogar and 2.4 for Kari (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Throttur Vogar are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Kari. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.9%.

Throttur Vogar vs Kari Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 2. Deild Predictions