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Oakleigh C. vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 10:15

Oakleigh C.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Melbourne C. B

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.7%0-23.7%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.8%1-19.2%1-27.2%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.6%3-15.7%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.3%4+-23.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 1.40 -35.6%

Draw 23.9% 4.60 +6.0%

Away win 30.1% 6.25 +88.1%

Over 2.5 64.0% 1.38 -11.7%

Over 3.5 40.5% 1.95 -21.0%

BTTS 61.8% 1.50 -7.3%

Win probability 1X2

Oakleigh C. (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -35.6%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +6.0%

Melbourne C. B (A) 30.1%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +88.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.8%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1✓ 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakleigh C.1.9

Melbourne C. B1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 2.00

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakleigh C. face Melbourne C. B in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakleigh C. a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Melbourne C. B 30%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Oakleigh C. and 1.6 for Melbourne C. B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakleigh C. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Melbourne C. B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +88.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Oakleigh C. vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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