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South Melbourne vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 05:30

South Melbourne

PPG 0.86 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Altona Magic

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.4%0-24.6%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.5%1-110.7%1-27.7%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.5%3-15.0%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.0%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 61.7% 1.62 -32.8%

Draw 23.9% 25.3% 3.95 -3.4%

Away win 34.7% 22.7% 4.40 +52.7%

Over 2.5 61.0% 64.5% 1.55 -5.5%

Over 3.5 38.6% 42.0% 2.38 -8.1%

BTTS 61.4% 64.5% 1.55 -4.8%

Home O1.5 55.0% 65.4% 1.53 -15.8%

Away O1.5 33.6% 35.7% 2.80 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.4%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Melbourne1.7

Altona Magic1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 0.86

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

South Melbourne (H) 41.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -32.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -3.4%

Altona Magic (A) 34.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +52.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face Altona Magic in Australia - Victoria NPL on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Altona Magic 35%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for South Melbourne and 1.4 for Altona Magic (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Altona Magic. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.7%. This match finished 2-3.

South Melbourne vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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