South Melbourne vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Australia - Victoria NPL Regular Season - 16 Sunday, June 7, 2026 05:30

South Melbourne PPG 0.86

VS PENDING

Altona Magic PPG 1.00

Away· +52.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face Altona Magic in Australia - Victoria NPL on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Altona Magic 35%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for South Melbourne and 1.4 for Altona Magic (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Altona Magic. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.7%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.5%

Odds: 1.62 EV: -32.8%

Draw 23.9%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -3.4%

Away 34.7%

Odds: 4.40 EV: +52.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.0% Odds: 1.55 -5.5%

Over 3.5 38.6% Odds: 2.38 -8.1%

BTTS 61.4% Odds: 1.55 -4.8%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 2-1

3rd 1-2

4th 2-2

5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

South Melbourne

1.67

Altona Magic

1.44

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+52.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 8.3%

Bet Hit 60% (20 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away AVERAGE (1.00)