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M. Srbija vs North Geelong Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Saturday, June 6, 2026, 05:00

M. Srbija

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

North Geelong

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.1%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.0%1-110.8%1-26.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.8%3-15.7%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.8%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 25.0% — — —

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.6% — — —

BTTS 60.6% — — —

Home O1.5 55.0% — — —

Away O1.5 32.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.6%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Srbija1.8

North Geelong1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

M. SRBIJA · PPG 2.00

NORTH GEELONG · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=50.5%

Win probability 1X2

M. Srbija (H) 50.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

North Geelong (A) 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Srbija face North Geelong in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Srbija a 51% chance, the draw 25% and North Geelong 25%, so M. Srbija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for M. Srbija and 1.2 for North Geelong (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Srbija are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.86 for North Geelong.

M. Srbija vs North Geelong Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions