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Port Melbourne vs Brunswick City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 04:00

Port Melbourne

PPG 0.88 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brunswick City

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-19.6%0-29.6%0-36.3%0-4+4.9%1 1-05.0%1-110.0%1-29.9%1-36.6%1-4+5.2%2 2-02.6%2-15.2%2-25.2%2-33.4%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.9%3-11.8%3-21.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.5% 20.8% 4.80 +1.9%

Draw 22.3% 23.8% 4.20 -3.8%

Away win 56.2% 69.4% 1.44 -19.1%

Over 2.5 60.7% 69.4% 1.44 -12.6%

Over 3.5 36.6% 49.5% 2.02 -26.1%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 36.7% 35.2% 2.84 +4.2%

Away O1.5 44.6% 72.5% 1.38 -38.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob55.4%

A 56% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.6%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 1–3✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port Melbourne1.0

Brunswick City2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 0.88

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.88), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Port Melbourne (H) 21.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.8%

Brunswick City (A) 56.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Melbourne face Brunswick City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Melbourne a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Brunswick City 56%, so Brunswick City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Port Melbourne and 2.0 for Brunswick City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Melbourne are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.67 for Brunswick City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Port Melbourne vs Brunswick City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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