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Tvaaker vs Angelholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 13 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 17:00

Tvaaker

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Angelholm

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-111.1%0-26.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.6%1-113.0%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.2%2-17.6%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.4%3-13.0%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 2.50 -11.5%

Draw 28.1% 3.40 -2.7%

Away win 36.5% 2.50 -8.8%

Over 2.5 49.5% 1.77 -12.4%

Over 3.5 29.1% 2.95 -8.5%

BTTS 55.9% 1.60 -10.6%

Win probability 1X2

Tvaaker (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.5%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.7%

Angelholm (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -10.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tvaaker1.2

Angelholm1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TVAAKER · PPG 1.67

ANGELHOLM · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.60)

Match Preview & Prediction

Tvaaker face Angelholm in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tvaaker a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Angelholm 37%, so Angelholm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tvaaker and 1.2 for Angelholm (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tvaaker are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.60 for Angelholm. This match finished 3-2.

Tvaaker vs Angelholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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