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Trelleborg vs Rosengard Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 13 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 17:00

Trelleborg

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rosengard

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.6%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.0%1-111.4%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.4%3-15.5%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 56.5% 1.77 -7.2%

Draw 24.2% 27.0% 3.70 -6.3%

Away win 23.4% 26.7% 3.75 -7.3%

Over 2.5 54.0% 60.6% 1.65 -10.9%

Over 3.5 33.5% 38.5% 2.60 -12.9%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Away O1.5 33.3% 37.0% 2.70 -10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -8.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trelleborg1.7

Rosengard1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.00

ROSENGARD · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Trelleborg (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -7.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.3%

Rosengard (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trelleborg face Rosengard in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trelleborg a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Rosengard 23%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Trelleborg and 1.0 for Rosengard (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trelleborg are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Rosengard. This match finished 3-2.

Trelleborg vs Rosengard Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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