Today / Sweden - Ettan - Södra / Jonkopings vs Lund

Jonkopings vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 13 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 17:00

Jonkopings

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lund

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.4%0-24.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.3%1-110.9%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.3%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.0%3-15.3%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.3%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 1.68 -18.5%

Draw 24.1% 3.95 -2.9%

Away win 27.3% 3.95 +4.7%

Over 2.5 61.4% 1.48 -9.1%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.20 -12.4%

BTTS 61.7% 1.48 -8.7%

Win probability 1X2

Jonkopings (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -18.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.9%

Lund (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -10.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonkopings1.7

Lund1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JONKOPINGS · PPG 2.50

LUND · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=48.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonkopings face Lund in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonkopings a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Lund 27%, so Jonkopings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jonkopings and 1.3 for Lund (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonkopings are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.43 for Lund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Jonkopings vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Södra Predictions