Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Hannover 96 vs Paderborn

Hannover 96 vs Paderborn Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:30

Hannover 96

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Paderborn

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.9%0-25.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.7%1-111.7%1-27.9%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.2%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 46.5% 2.15 -12.3%

Draw 25.0% 27.8% 3.60 -10.0%

Away win 34.2% 33.3% 3.00 +2.6%

Over 2.5 54.0% 63.7% 1.57 -15.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 41.7% 2.40 -23.9%

BTTS 57.4% 69.0% 1.45 -16.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.4%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hannover 961.5

Paderborn1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HANNOVER 96 · PPG 1.71

PADERBORN · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Hannover 96 (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -12.3%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.0%

Paderborn (A) 34.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hannover 96 face Paderborn in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hannover 96 a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Paderborn 34%, so Hannover 96 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hannover 96 and 1.3 for Paderborn (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hannover 96 are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.79 for Paderborn. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Hannover 96 vs Paderborn Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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