Today / Paide vs Harju JK

Paide vs Harju JK Prediction

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Paide

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Harju JK

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.7%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.6%1-26.1%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-16.0%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — —

Draw 24.4% — —

Away win 26.3% — —

Over 2.5 61.1% — —

Over 3.5 37.0% — —

BTTS 55.9% — —

Win probability 1X2

Paide (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Harju JK (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paide1.9

Harju JK1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PAIDE · PPG 1.43

HARJU JK · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Match Preview & Prediction

Paide face Harju JK on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paide a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Harju JK 26%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Paide and 1.1 for Harju JK (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paide are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.29 for Harju JK.

Paide vs Harju JK Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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