Today / South-Korea - WK-League / Changnyeong W vs Suwon FMC W

Changnyeong W vs Suwon FMC W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Regular Season - 12 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 10:00

Changnyeong W logo
Changnyeong W
PPG 0.00 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Suwon FMC W logo
Suwon FMC W
PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-16.8%0-29.9%0-39.5%0-4+14.0%1 1-02.0%1-15.8%1-28.4%1-38.1%1-4+11.9%2 2-00.9%2-12.5%2-23.6%2-33.5%2-4+5.1%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-21.0%3-31.0%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV
Home win 12.6% 4.10 -29.0%
Draw 17.9% 3.50 -22.4%
Away win 69.4% 1.70 +18.0%
Over 2.5 65.9% 1.65 +8.7%
Over 3.5 42.7% 2.83 +20.8%
BTTS 55.9% 1.71 -4.4%

Win probability 1X2

Changnyeong W (H) 12.6%
ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -29.0%
Draw 17.9%
ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -22.4%
Suwon FMC W (A) 69.4%
ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +18.0%

League track record

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%
O2.5 0%
BTTS 67%
Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob55.9%

A 69% / xG 0.9-2.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.9%
#2 0–3 9.5%
#3 1–2 8.4%
#4 1–3 8.1%
#5 0–4 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changnyeong W0.9
Suwon FMC W2.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGNYEONG W · PPG 0.00

SUWON FMC W · PPG 2.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
40%
NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Match Preview & Prediction

Changnyeong W face Suwon FMC W in South-Korea - WK-League on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changnyeong W a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Suwon FMC W 69%, so Suwon FMC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Changnyeong W and 2.9 for Suwon FMC W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changnyeong W are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 2.40 for Suwon FMC W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +58.4%.

PredictVantage

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