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Gyeongju W vs Hwacheon W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Regular Season - 12 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 10:00

Gyeongju W

PPG 0.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hwacheon W

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-118.9%0-213.9%0-36.8%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.0%1-28.1%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-02.2%2-13.2%2-22.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 20.8% 4.10 -8.8%

Draw 24.4% 3.50 -8.8%

Away win 54.8% 1.70 -6.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 1.65 -21.5%

Over 3.5 28.1% 2.83 -12.3%

BTTS 48.5% 1.71 -17.1%

Win probability 1X2

Gyeongju W (H) 20.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.8%

Hwacheon W (A) 54.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 0%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.5%

A 55% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.9%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 0–2 13.9%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyeongju W0.6

Hwacheon W1.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GYEONGJU W · PPG 0.20

HWACHEON W · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyeongju W face Hwacheon W in South-Korea - WK-League on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyeongju W a 21% chance, the draw 24% and Hwacheon W 55%, so Hwacheon W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Gyeongju W and 1.5 for Hwacheon W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyeongju W are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 2.25 for Hwacheon W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.2%.

Gyeongju W vs Hwacheon W Prediction— South-Korea - WK-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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