Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 29 Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera· Szczecin Saturday, April 18, 2026 18:15

Pogon Szczecin PPG 1.86

1-2 HIT CS3

Lech Poznan PPG 1.64

Home· +31.4% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Szczecin face Lech Poznan in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Szczecin a 47% chance, the draw 22% and Lech Poznan 32%, so Pogon Szczecin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Pogon Szczecin and 1.6 for Lech Poznan (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.64 for Lech Poznan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.6%

Odds: 2.82 EV: +31.4%

Draw 22.0%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -17.5%

Away 31.5%

Odds: 2.22 EV: -30.1%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.7% Odds: 1.55 +4.9%

Over 3.5 46.1% Odds: 2.35 +8.3%

BTTS 67.5% Odds: 1.48 -0.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✔

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Pogon Szczecin

1.93

Lech Poznan

1.56

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +4.9% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+31.4%)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.64)