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Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:15

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lech Poznan

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.8%0-23.7%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.9%1-19.2%1-27.2%1-33.7%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.7%3-15.7%3-24.4%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.3%4+-23.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 35.5% 2.82 +31.4%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -17.5%

Away win 31.5% 45.0% 2.22 -30.1%

Over 2.5 67.7% 64.5% 1.55 +4.9%

Over 3.5 46.1% 42.6% 2.35 +8.3%

BTTS 67.5% 67.6% 1.48 -0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob67.5%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2✓ 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogon Szczecin1.9

Lech Poznan1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 1.86

LECH POZNAN · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Pogon Szczecin (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +31.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -17.5%

Lech Poznan (A) 31.5%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Szczecin face Lech Poznan in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Szczecin a 47% chance, the draw 22% and Lech Poznan 32%, so Pogon Szczecin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Pogon Szczecin and 1.6 for Lech Poznan (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.64 for Lech Poznan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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