Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / Selfoss vs Throttur Vogar

Selfoss vs Throttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 8 ·Monday, June 15, 2026, 19:15

Selfoss

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Throttur Vogar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.0%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.2%1-18.9%1-24.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-17.2%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.7%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 66.7% 1.50 -13.6%

Draw 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -6.2%

Away win 20.0% 20.8% 4.80 -2.4%

Over 2.5 64.2% 69.4% 1.44 -7.5%

Over 3.5 39.8% 52.9% 1.89 -24.8%

BTTS 60.7% 71.4% 1.40 -15.0%

Home O1.5 61.0% 74.1% 1.35 -17.6%

Away O1.5 32.8% 38.9% 2.57 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.7%

H 58% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 3–1✓ 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Selfoss2.2

Throttur Vogar1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SELFOSS · PPG 2.00

THROTTUR VOGAR · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Selfoss (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.6%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

Throttur Vogar (A) 20.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Selfoss face Throttur Vogar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Monday, June 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Selfoss a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Throttur Vogar 20%, so Selfoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Selfoss and 1.1 for Throttur Vogar (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Selfoss are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Throttur Vogar. This match finished 3-1.

Selfoss vs Throttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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