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Selfoss vs Throttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, June 15, 2026, 19:15

Selfoss

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Throttur Vogar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.0%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.2%1-18.9%1-24.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-17.2%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.7%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 1.50 -13.6%

Draw 22.4% 4.00 -6.2%

Away win 20.0% 4.80 -2.4%

Over 2.5 64.2% 1.44 -7.5%

Over 3.5 39.8% 1.89 -24.8%

BTTS 60.7% 1.40 -15.0%

Win probability 1X2

Selfoss (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.6%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

Throttur Vogar (A) 20.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.7%

H 58% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Selfoss2.2

Throttur Vogar1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SELFOSS · PPG 2.00

THROTTUR VOGAR · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Match Preview & Prediction

Selfoss face Throttur Vogar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Monday, June 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Selfoss a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Throttur Vogar 20%, so Selfoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Selfoss and 1.1 for Throttur Vogar (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Selfoss are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Throttur Vogar.

Selfoss vs Throttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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