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Fjolnir vs Kari Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 8 ·Monday, June 15, 2026, 19:15

Fjolnir

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kari

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.4%0-20.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-00.4%1-11.3%1-22.0%1-32.1%1-4+3.5%2 2-00.8%2-12.4%2-23.7%2-33.8%2-4+6.4%3 3-01.0%3-13.0%3-24.6%3-34.7%3-4+7.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-17.1%4+-210.9%4+-311.2%4+-4+18.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 58.8% 1.70 -18.7%

Draw 18.1% 25.0% 4.00 -16.6%

Away win 34.1% 28.6% 3.50 +19.4%

Over 2.5 81.2% 80.0% 1.25 +1.5%

Over 3.5 71.0% 64.5% 1.55 +10.1%

BTTS 68.0% 80.0% 1.25 -15.0%

Home O1.5 76.1% 75.2% 1.33 +1.2%

Away O1.5 80.9% 54.1% 1.85 +49.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob68.0%

H 48% / xG 3.7-3.1 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–3 4.7%

#2 3–2 4.6%

#3 4–3 4.3%

#4 4–2 4.2%

#5 2–3 3.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fjolnir3.7

Kari3.1

COMBINED 6.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.2% · O3.5 PROB 71.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FJOLNIR · PPG 2.25

KARI · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=47.8%

Win probability 1X2

Fjolnir (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -18.7%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -16.6%

Kari (A) 34.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fjolnir face Kari in Iceland - 2. Deild on Monday, June 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fjolnir a 48% chance, the draw 18% and Kari 34%, so Fjolnir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Fjolnir and 3.1 for Kari (6.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-3. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fjolnir are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Kari. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +49.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Fjolnir vs Kari Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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