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Gimnasia vs E. Rio Cuarto Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:00

Gimnasia

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

E. Rio Cuarto

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 87.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+60.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-11.5%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.2%1-13.8%1-20.5%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.6%2-14.9%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.9%3-14.2%3-20.5%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-020.1%4+-15.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.3% 54.3% 1.84 +60.6%

Draw 10.4% 31.7% 3.15 -67.2%

Away win 2.3% 21.1% 4.75 -89.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 38.5% 2.60 +39.9%

Over 3.5 31.5% 19.0% 5.25 +65.4%

BTTS 20.6% 44.4% 2.25 -53.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob20.6%

H 87% / xG 2.6-0.3 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 21%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 19.6%

#2 3–0 16.9%

#3 1–0✓ 15.2%

#4 4–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia2.6

E. Rio Cuarto0.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA · PPG 1.17

E. RIO CUARTO · PPG 0.14

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

64%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.17), Away POOR (0.14) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia (H) 87.3%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +60.6%

Draw 10.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -67.2%

E. Rio Cuarto (A) 2.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -89.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia face E. Rio Cuarto in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia a 87% chance, the draw 10% and E. Rio Cuarto 2%, so Gimnasia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Gimnasia and 0.3 for E. Rio Cuarto (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 21% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.14 for E. Rio Cuarto. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +65.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Gimnasia vs E. Rio Cuarto Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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