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Angers vs Le Havre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 17:00

Angers

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Le Havre

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-110.7%0-23.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-112.3%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-17.1%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.2%3-12.7%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 36.5% 2.74 +31.8%

Draw 31.3% 34.0% 2.94 -8.0%

Away win 20.6% 36.5% 2.74 -43.6%

Over 2.5 26.9% 42.6% 2.35 -36.8%

Over 3.5 10.9% 23.1% 4.33 -52.8%

BTTS 32.5% 54.1% 1.85 -39.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob32.5%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 27% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.1%

#2 0–0 16.5%

#3 1–1✓ 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angers1.2

Le Havre0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.9% · O3.5 PROB 10.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGERS · PPG 1.50

LE HAVRE · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=48.1%

Win probability 1X2

Angers (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV +31.8%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -8.0%

Le Havre (A) 20.6%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -43.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angers face Le Havre in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angers a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Le Havre 21%, so Angers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Angers and 0.6 for Le Havre (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angers are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Le Havre. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Angers vs Le Havre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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