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Adelaide Utd B vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 10:00

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Adelaide City

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-18.6%0-27.7%0-34.6%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.8%1-29.6%1-35.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.8%2-16.7%2-26.0%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.5%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 36.4% 2.75 -11.3%

Draw 24.3% 27.4% 3.65 -6.8%

Away win 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 2.5 60.6% 69.4% 1.44 -12.7%

Over 3.5 37.9% 50.0% 2.00 -24.2%

BTTS 61.6% 69.4% 1.44 -11.3%

Home O1.5 41.6% 47.6% 2.10 -12.6%

Away O1.5 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.6%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Utd B1.2

Adelaide City1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.33

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Utd B (H) 29.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.8%

Adelaide City (A) 46.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Utd B face Adelaide City in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Utd B a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Adelaide City 46%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Adelaide Utd B and 1.8 for Adelaide City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Utd B are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.57 for Adelaide City. This match finished 0-0.

Adelaide Utd B vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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