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NE MetroStars vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 07:45

NE MetroStars

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.5%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.0%1-14.8%1-22.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.4%2-17.6%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.7%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-114.2%4+-28.5%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.6% 75.2% 1.33 -15.4%

Draw 18.0% 20.8% 4.80 -8.2%

Away win 18.3% 15.4% 6.50 +11.4%

Over 2.5 73.0% 75.2% 1.33 -2.9%

Over 3.5 47.0% 55.6% 1.80 -15.4%

BTTS 62.6% 66.7% 1.50 -6.1%

Home O1.5 76.0% 80.0% 1.25 -5.0%

Away O1.5 32.9% 32.3% 3.10 +2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.6%

H 64% / xG 3.2-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 3–0 6.7%

#4 4–1 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NE MetroStars3.2

Sturt Lions1.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NE METROSTARS · PPG 1.83

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=63.6%

Win probability 1X2

NE MetroStars (H) 63.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -15.4%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -8.2%

Sturt Lions (A) 18.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

NE MetroStars face Sturt Lions in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NE MetroStars a 64% chance, the draw 18% and Sturt Lions 18%, so NE MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for NE MetroStars and 1.2 for Sturt Lions (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NE MetroStars are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Sturt Lions. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 1-0.

NE MetroStars vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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