Today / Bosnia - Premijer Liga / Borac Banja L. vs Velez Mostar

Borac Banja L. vs Velez Mostar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

Borac Banja L.

PPG 2.79 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Velez Mostar

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 92.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a clear edge.

+19.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-10.8%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.5%1-12.7%1-20.4%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.4%2-14.4%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.7%3-14.8%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-030.6%4+-18.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 92.2% 76.9% 1.30 +19.9%

Draw 6.4% 25.0% 4.00 -74.4%

Away win 1.5% 10.0% 10.00 -85.0%

Over 2.5 68.4% — — —

Over 3.5 46.9% — — —

BTTS 23.9% 45.5% 2.20 -47.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob23.9%

H 92% / xG 3.2-0.3 / O2.5 68% / NoBTTS 24%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 16.7%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 4–0 13.5%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 5–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Borac Banja L.3.2

Velez Mostar0.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BORAC BANJA L. · PPG 2.79

VELEZ MOSTAR · PPG 1.21

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.79), Away AVERAGE (1.21) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Borac Banja L. (H) 92.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV +19.9%

Draw 6.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -74.4%

Velez Mostar (A) 1.5%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -85.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Borac Banja L. face Velez Mostar in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Borac Banja L. a 92% chance, the draw 6% and Velez Mostar 2%, so Borac Banja L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Borac Banja L. and 0.3 for Velez Mostar (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 24% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Borac Banja L. are averaging 2.79 points per game versus 1.21 for Velez Mostar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Borac Banja L. vs Velez Mostar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bosnia - Premijer Liga Predictions