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FK Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

FK Sarajevo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLW ·

UPCOMING

Borac Banja Luka

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-112.1%0-26.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.5%2-17.5%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.8%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 32.1% 3.12 +13.9%

Draw 28.0% 33.4% 2.99 -9.8%

Away win 35.4% 45.7% 2.19 -22.5%

Over 2.5 43.5% 43.7% 2.29 -0.4%

Over 3.5 22.9% 23.8% 4.20 -2.3%

BTTS 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Home O1.5 31.0% 30.7% 3.26 +1.1%

Away O1.5 29.6% 40.2% 2.49 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Sarajevo1.1

Borac Banja Luka1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FK SARAJEVO · PPG 1.75

BORAC BANJA LUKA · PPG 1.72

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FK Sarajevo (H) 36.5%

ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV +13.9%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 2.99 · IMPLIED 33.4% EV -9.8%

Borac Banja Luka (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.19 · IMPLIED 45.7% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Sarajevo face Borac Banja Luka in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Sarajevo a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Borac Banja Luka 35%, so FK Sarajevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FK Sarajevo and 1.0 for Borac Banja Luka (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Sarajevo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.72 for Borac Banja Luka. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.1%.

FK Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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