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Zrinjski vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:15

Zrinjski

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Siroki Brijeg

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

Home 69% chance

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-14.6%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-19.3%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-16.2%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-15.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Draw 21.4% 25.6% 3.90 -9.9%

Away win 15.5% 13.9% 7.20 +7.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 49.3% 2.03 +9.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

BTTS 49.9% 45.2% 2.21 +10.3%

Home O1.5 55.8% 58.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Away O1.5 18.8% 16.7% 6.00 +7.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 63% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zrinjski2.0

Siroki Brijeg0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZRINJSKI · PPG 2.27

SIROKI BRIJEG · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zrinjski (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -11.5%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.9%

Siroki Brijeg (A) 15.5%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zrinjski face Siroki Brijeg in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zrinjski a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Siroki Brijeg 16%, so Zrinjski are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Zrinjski and 0.7 for Siroki Brijeg (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zrinjski are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.33 for Siroki Brijeg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.6%.

Zrinjski vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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