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Tottenham vs Brighton Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

Tottenham

PPG 0.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Brighton

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.8%0-26.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.9%1-112.4%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.6%2-17.8%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.3%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% 37.6% 2.66 -10.1%

Draw 26.0% 27.8% 3.60 -6.4%

Away win 40.2% 41.7% 2.40 -3.5%

Over 2.5 49.4% 60.6% 1.65 -18.5%

Over 3.5 27.5% 37.7% 2.65 -27.1%

BTTS 53.8% 65.4% 1.53 -17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.8%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tottenham1.3

Brighton1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TOTTENHAM · PPG 0.63

BRIGHTON · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.19) vs Home POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Tottenham (H) 33.8%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -10.1%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.4%

Brighton (A) 40.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tottenham face Brighton in England - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tottenham a 34% chance, the draw 26% and Brighton 40%, so Brighton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tottenham and 1.4 for Brighton (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tottenham are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 1.19 for Brighton. This match finished 2-2.

Tottenham vs Brighton Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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