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Sloboda Tuzla vs TOSK Tesanj Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 26 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 15:30

Sloboda Tuzla

PPG 1.92 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

TOSK Tesanj

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-110.0%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.9%1-113.0%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.4%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.6%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 63.7% 1.57 -31.2%

Draw 27.7% 28.6% 3.50 -1.8%

Away win 28.6% 19.0% 5.25 +30.1%

Over 2.5 48.7% 48.8% 2.05 -0.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 30.8% 3.25 -5.2%

BTTS 52.8% 52.6% 1.90 +0.3%

Home O1.5 46.9% 56.5% 1.77 -17.0%

Away O1.5 32.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.8%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sloboda Tuzla1.3

TOSK Tesanj1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOBODA TUZLA · PPG 1.92

TOSK TESANJ · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.92) vs P(Home)=43.8%

Win probability 1X2

Sloboda Tuzla (H) 43.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -31.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.8%

TOSK Tesanj (A) 28.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sloboda Tuzla face TOSK Tesanj in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sloboda Tuzla a 44% chance, the draw 28% and TOSK Tesanj 29%, so Sloboda Tuzla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sloboda Tuzla and 1.1 for TOSK Tesanj (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sloboda Tuzla are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.08 for TOSK Tesanj. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Sloboda Tuzla vs TOSK Tesanj Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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