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Celik vs R. Hadzici Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 24 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:30

Celik

PPG 2.45 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

R. Hadzici

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.2%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-19.0%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-17.0%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-16.2%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 76.9% 1.30 -21.5%

Draw 21.9% 23.1% 4.33 -3.1%

Away win 17.8% 11.1% 9.00 +36.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 55.6% 1.80 +6.4%

Over 3.5 35.0% 34.7% 2.88 +0.8%

BTTS 51.6% 45.5% 2.20 +13.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 60% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celik2.2

R. Hadzici0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CELIK · PPG 2.45

R. HADZICI · PPG 1.36

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.45) vs P(Home)=60.4%

Win probability 1X2

Celik (H) 60.4%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -21.5%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.1%

R. Hadzici (A) 17.8%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +36.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celik face R. Hadzici in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celik a 60% chance, the draw 22% and R. Hadzici 18%, so Celik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Celik and 0.8 for R. Hadzici (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celik are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 1.36 for R. Hadzici. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Celik vs R. Hadzici Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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