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Stupcanica vs Sloboda Tuzla Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 23 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Stupcanica

PPG 1.82 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sloboda Tuzla

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-17.7%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.3%1-111.9%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.2%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-14.8%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 69.4% 1.44 -25.7%

Draw 25.7% 23.1% 4.33 +6.8%

Away win 22.7% 19.0% 5.25 +11.5%

Over 2.5 47.3% 63.7% 1.57 -25.7%

Over 3.5 21.7% 35.7% 2.80 -23.5%

BTTS 50.0% 53.5% 1.87 -6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.0%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stupcanica1.5

Sloboda Tuzla0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STUPCANICA · PPG 1.82

SLOBODA TUZLA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=51.6%

Win probability 1X2

Stupcanica (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -25.7%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +6.8%

Sloboda Tuzla (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stupcanica face Sloboda Tuzla in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stupcanica a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Sloboda Tuzla 23%, so Stupcanica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Stupcanica and 0.8 for Sloboda Tuzla (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stupcanica are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.00 for Sloboda Tuzla. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Stupcanica vs Sloboda Tuzla Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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