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Celik vs TOSK Tesanj Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 22 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:00

Celik

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

TOSK Tesanj

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.0%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.9%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.9%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 78.7% 1.27 -35.2%

Draw 26.4% 22.2% 4.50 +11.3%

Away win 22.6% 10.5% 9.50 +68.8%

Over 2.5 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Over 3.5 28.4% 32.8% 3.05 -8.0%

BTTS 52.3% 40.7% 2.46 +28.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0✓ 11.0%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celik1.8

TOSK Tesanj0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CELIK · PPG 2.40

TOSK TESANJ · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Celik (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -35.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +11.3%

TOSK Tesanj (A) 22.6%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +68.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celik face TOSK Tesanj in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celik a 51% chance, the draw 26% and TOSK Tesanj 23%, so Celik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Celik and 0.9 for TOSK Tesanj (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celik are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.00 for TOSK Tesanj. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +68.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Celik vs TOSK Tesanj Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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