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IFK Trelleborg vs Linero Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

IFK Trelleborg

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Linero

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+11.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.9%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.5%1-17.4%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-17.8%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-19.0%4+-23.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.9% 59.9% 1.67 +11.7%

Draw 17.4% 25.0% 4.00 -18.2%

Away win 15.6% 26.7% 3.75 -24.9%

Over 2.5 65.0% 69.4% 1.44 -6.4%

Over 3.5 44.9% 47.6% 2.10 -5.7%

BTTS 55.9% 66.7% 1.50 -16.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Away O1.5 24.7% 40.0% 2.50 -22.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 67% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–0 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.4%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Trelleborg2.5

Linero0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.33

LINERO · PPG 1.11

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

62%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.66 for Home, form 2.33 vs 1.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

IFK Trelleborg (H) 66.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +11.7%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -18.2%

Linero (A) 15.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Trelleborg face Linero in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Trelleborg a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Linero 16%, so IFK Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for IFK Trelleborg and 0.9 for Linero (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Trelleborg are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.11 for Linero. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +21.3%.

IFK Trelleborg vs Linero Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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