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Berga vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Berga

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

UPCOMING

Lilla Torg

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 67% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.2%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.6%1-17.8%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-17.7%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-18.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% 62.5% 1.60 -1.9%

Draw 18.2% 25.6% 3.90 -17.4%

Away win 20.4% 23.1% 4.33 -7.0%

Over 2.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Over 3.5 44.9% 45.5% 2.20 -1.2%

BTTS 58.8% 63.7% 1.57 -7.7%

Home O1.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Away O1.5 26.1% 36.4% 2.75 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob58.8%

H 61% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Berga2.4

Lilla Torg0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BERGA · PPG 1.89

LILLA TORG · PPG 0.78

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.53 for Home, form 1.89 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Berga (H) 61.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -1.9%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -17.4%

Lilla Torg (A) 20.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Berga face Lilla Torg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Berga a 61% chance, the draw 18% and Lilla Torg 20%, so Berga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Berga and 0.9 for Lilla Torg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Berga are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.78 for Lilla Torg. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +10.3%.

Berga vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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