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Staffanstorp United vs Karlskrona Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Staffanstorp United

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

UPCOMING

Karlskrona

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-16.0%0-26.6%0-34.9%0-4+4.5%1 1-03.8%1-18.4%1-29.3%1-36.8%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.7%2-15.9%2-26.5%2-34.8%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.2%3-12.7%3-23.0%3-32.2%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 24.4% 4.10 -3.7%

Draw 19.6% 23.8% 4.20 -10.6%

Away win 57.4% 63.7% 1.57 -9.9%

Over 2.5 68.4% 71.4% 1.40 -4.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 52.4% 1.91 -14.1%

BTTS 61.6% 66.7% 1.50 -7.6%

Home O1.5 39.8% 40.0% 2.50 -0.5%

Away O1.5 64.6% 69.4% 1.44 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.6%

A 57% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Staffanstorp United1.4

Karlskrona2.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STAFFANSTORP UNITED · PPG 1.11

KARLSKRONA · PPG 2.33

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

DANGER

xG gap -0.81 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Staffanstorp United (H) 22.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.7%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.6%

Karlskrona (A) 57.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Staffanstorp United face Karlskrona in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Staffanstorp United a 23% chance, the draw 20% and Karlskrona 57%, so Karlskrona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Staffanstorp United and 2.2 for Karlskrona (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Staffanstorp United are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 2.33 for Karlskrona. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Staffanstorp United vs Karlskrona Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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