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Oskarshamns AIK vs Nosaby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Oskarshamns AIK

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Nosaby

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.32 for Home, form 2.44 vs 1.11 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.3%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.2%1-14.3%1-22.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.0%2-17.2%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-18.1%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-015.4%4+-115.8%4+-28.1%4+-32.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.2% 59.5% 1.68 +19.6%

Draw 14.9% 27.4% 3.65 -27.4%

Away win 13.8% 26.7% 3.75 -28.9%

Over 2.5 72.6% 67.6% 1.48 +7.4%

Over 3.5 52.5% 45.5% 2.20 +15.5%

BTTS 61.5% — — —

Home O1.5 77.9% — — —

Away O1.5 32.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.5%

H 71% / xG 3.3-1.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 3–0 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–1 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oskarshamns AIK3.3

Nosaby1.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OSKARSHAMNS AIK · PPG 2.44

NOSABY · PPG 1.11

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.32 for Home, form 2.44 vs 1.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oskarshamns AIK (H) 71.2%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +19.6%

Draw 14.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -27.4%

Nosaby (A) 13.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oskarshamns AIK face Nosaby in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oskarshamns AIK a 71% chance, the draw 15% and Nosaby 14%, so Oskarshamns AIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Oskarshamns AIK and 1.0 for Nosaby (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oskarshamns AIK are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.11 for Nosaby. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.5%.

Oskarshamns AIK vs Nosaby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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